Monthly supply of new residential housing hit a 10 year high

This is for new builds specifically, but still a clear sign the market is shifting. Lots of houses builders are sitting on. Price reductions come next, although inflation could actually decrease the grow rate here.

Interestingly enough, this chart defines supply as a ratio of new inventory to current sales rate, so the monthly supply going off like a rocket ship is a function of both collapsing sales and expanding units.

We’re at 9 months now from a recession low of 3-ish and a recent pre-pandemic normal of 5-6. ‘08 collapsed at 12 so it’s fair to say that somewhere around 12 is your “worst case scenario glut”.

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