New Construction Starts and Permits increased by 15% in November, both on MoM and YoY basis

Housing starts surged in November, defying expectations. The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.56 million starts, a stunning 14.8% jump from October and 9.3% higher than November 2022. This unexpected surge was driven by a sharp increase in single-family starts, which soared 18.0% from October and an impressive 42.2% year-over-year. Multi-family starts also ticked up in November, marking a welcome reversal from the 33.1% year-over-year decline seen in October.

Here’s the Census Bureau article:

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000. This is 2.5 percent below the revised October rate of 1,498,000, but is 4.1 percent above the November 2022 rate of 1,402,000. Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 976,000; this is 0.7 percent above the revised October figure of 969,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 435,000 in November.

Housing Starts
Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,560,000. This is 14.8 percent (±14.0 percent) above the revised October estimate of 1,359,000 and is 9.3 percent (±14.6 percent)* above the November 2022 rate of 1,427,000. Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 18.0 percent (±12.9 percent) above the revised October figure of 969,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.

However, despite this surge, it’s important to remember the bigger picture. Total starts for 2023 are still down 9.9% compared to 2022, reflecting the weakness in the earlier months of the year. While May, July, and November saw positive numbers, starts were down year-over-year for 16 of the past 19 months. Nevertheless, the strong November performance offers a glimmer of hope for the housing market, suggesting a potential comeback for single-family home construction.